Quote:
Originally Posted by bicker
Indeed, these devices are so costly that TiVo, even charging about $700 for one, loses money quarter-after-quarter. HD is very expensive technology.
I think, as a matter of pride, Echostar will continue to support the DTVPal DVR. I do think, though, if consumer demand and willingness to pay for this technology doesn't improve, that the chances of there being much in terms of enhancement or improvement over time will be depressed. |
The fact that E* did it for $250 and included shipping shows the tech involved is not $600 if done in volume. The cpu and ram used by dish and tivo I don't think anyone in the western world would buy for a desktop or laptop because they are that outdated
but are cheap and if bought in large lots no issues with compatibility and projecting what price point they can be sold at for a profit.
The software and programming guide is what sets the tivo apart and a great deal of that $700 cost (I assume you mean a tivo
HD and lifetime subscription) is the cost of providing the subscription.
I bought my first VHS vcr
on clearance back when betamax was the preferred format for nearly $500. It is huge, about the same size as a 19" b&w tv. It has a twist analog tuner and the timer would only turn the vcr on. The tape running out would turn it off. The only remote was a pause button that was wired. The tuner was horribly unreliable so many unattended tapes would end up being static and black screen when the signal was too weak despite the fact the broadcast towers were in sight probably 5 miles away. Cable wasn't offered but the tuner was so weak I doubt it would make a difference and this was a panasonic made in Japan.
How is it that something in 1981 cost $500 could be bought for the last few years before the
digital transition for less than $50 (probably $25 1981 dollars)? And the technology took a quantum leap at the same time? Economy of scale. At $500 few people bought vcrs but the few of us that did made sure everyone we knew found out how great they were. More people bought them bringing more manufacturers into the market. Then someone came up with the idea of putting programming on the tape and selling it for a premium but not too high.
With prerecorded programming came video rentals. Video rentals and purchases were a better value than pay tv (if you had cable) because you could watch exactly what you wanted when you wanted not on the pay tv schedule.
Video rental gave the vcr industry growing demand, growth in demand gave growth in suppliers and the price came down creating more demand. The same thing happened with cd's and DVD's.
What makes the
DVR different? Lack of exposure and marketing. The only supply is through rental except for the DTVpal. I doubt the cable companies are paying $600 for their dvrs. The subscription model scares off the purchase model which is why tivo will never take off. Read any of the posts in the DTVpal forums and you hear the same refrain: Don't want to buy a tivo due to subscription cost.
If scientific atlanta would sell their dvrs with a fair markup and an
ATSC tuner I'm guessing they could do it for less than $300. They won't because the cable companies wouldn't do business with them if they did.
The
DVR is terribly addictive. Once I got one I knew there was never going back. The majority of people with a
DVR will not shell out the investment to buy the hardware when they can rent a unit from the cable companies for $10 /month. $120/ year in 4 years is just short of $500. The cable and satellite companies will maintain their monopolies and keep the consumer purchase as a rarety, mostly those who like myself can't stand the pathetic firmware and programming guide offered by the cable/sat company or can't get one that works for the effort or expense.
The only reason I can think of for E* to enter the
OTA DVR market is the same reason they made the best value in gov't coupon converter boxes: marketing opportunity at a break even or loss. The DTVpal is basically just a dishnet
dvr without the satellite tuner and the optional
ATSC tuners. As they own the manufacturing and have economies of scale with the DTVpal and satellite dvrs being nearly identical, the idea was to get people hooked on the
DVR and then market Dishnet services with a conversion or upgrade. Unfortunately for Charlie Ergen the hardware/firmware was not impressive enough for those hooked to progress to the programming stage. From what I have read on the forums there are instead many dissatisfied customers, not the jumping off point Charlie hoped for in marketing so I doubt there will be much of a marketing push anytime soon and wouldn't be surprised if it were to be allowed to wither on the vine.
Myself I bought a Tivo
hd and invested in the lifetime subscription. The investment I made is almost paid off in these past six months in the fees I didn't pay the cable company and I love my tivo as much as I hated the mysterio firmware brighthouse had crippled their scientific atlanta
hd dvr with.
I too had that "I don't want to pay subscription fees mindset" and was anxiously awaiting the dtvpal but don't regret the extra investment one bit.
My expectation is that the ATT uverse/ verizion FIOS models will be what becomes of "broadcasting". They both use broadband to send programming. I watch nearly as much hulu and netflix streaming as I do broadcast and don't have time to watch half of what I have on my tivo and 500MB
dvr expander.
I can't see with broadband providing more and more programming how the
OTA can remain cost effective, only a small percentage of the US population get their programming directly
OTA now and that will continue to dwindle. A $120 roku box and a $9/month netflix subscription and you won't be lacking in things to watch for much less upfront than the $600 I paid for my tivo or the $80/month I was paying for digital cable and
DVR.
I sure will miss
OTA if it does go though. Just last week there was a cable outage that lasted several hours with no major storms in the area at the time the outage occurred. How do I know? My broadband went out and my neighbors were complaining the next day. Other than broadband being out I had no issues as my
OTA was not affected and all the programming I have on my Tivo could be watched. One of my big reasons to drop brighthouse was the new firmware had their DVRs set up to not play without a cable connection, so if the cable goes out not only could you not watch the cable but couldn't watch the things you had recorded either!
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