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Old 05-27-2009, 10:55 PM   #1 (permalink)
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Default 2.7% not ready for Digital Transition

Nielsen released numbers today showing that 3.1 million TV households are not ready for digital television signals. This represents a .2% improvement (200,000 households) from two weeks ago when Neilson reported that 3.3 million households were unready.

Side Note: 5.0% of households 35 years old and under are not ready for the digital transition compared to 1.5% of 55 years and older

Source: http://blog.nielsen.com/nielsenwire/...rt-5-24-09.pdf
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Old 05-28-2009, 11:51 AM   #2 (permalink)
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Anyone starting to see a pattern of diminishing returns here? That's why another delay will not help people to prepare, IMHO.
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Old 05-28-2009, 12:56 PM   #3 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by Aaron62 View Post
Anyone starting to see a pattern of diminishing returns here? That's why another delay will not help people to prepare, IMHO.
Exactly, I stated back over on AVS forum in January that this process of who is ready will follow a inverse non-linear curve, where as time goes by the amount of people ready increase. But as the curve plotted of those ready vs time, would approach an asymptote but never reach 100%.

So each equal unit of time that goes by, fewer additional households will be ready. It was apparent to me looking at the historical data. It was part of my argument against the delay that we might pick up another 2 per cent costing stations tens millions in combined electric bills. Tons of carbon into the atmosphere, more money leaving the US for the diesel to fuel the trains to bring the coal to the power plants.

Almost any conversion, statistical certainty would call 95% match a completion. We had that in Feb. but while some of those in Washington might have gone to Law School, they never got past counting on their fingers.

Guess you can tell it's a passionate topic to me. But I bet no one talks me down!
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Old 05-28-2009, 01:09 PM   #4 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by Piggie View Post
Exactly, I stated back over on AVS forum in January that this process of who is ready will follow a inverse non-linear curve, where as time goes by the amount of people ready increase. But as the curve plotted of those ready vs time, would approach an asymptote but never reach 100%.
Math

No matter what, there are still going to be 3 million unhappy people June 12.
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Old 05-28-2009, 06:46 PM   #5 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by Jay View Post
Nielsen released numbers today showing that 3.1 million TV households are not ready for digital television signals. This represents a .2% improvement (200,000 households) from two weeks ago when Neilson reported that 3.3 million households were unready.

Side Note: 5.0% of households 35 years old and under are not ready for the digital transition compared to 1.5% of 55 years and older

Source: http://blog.nielsen.com/nielsenwire/...rt-5-24-09.pdf
I believe a large portion of those not currently ready have no intention of getting ready. It's summer and they don't really care about TV at this time and others will decide if they go cable , satellite or OTA after June 12, 2009. Some probably don't have television now and don't plan on having in the future. Three percent of the population are complaining about one subject or another on a continual basis. I can't wait til they throw the switch so I can focus my efforts on the TVGOS issues.
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Old 05-28-2009, 09:24 PM   #6 (permalink)
 
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Everything takes time, and I agree the numbers are small, but along with all of those statistical numbers, you do have to take into account that this is a major change in how we do business in America. It's perhaps the biggest change in all of TV history, so I don't think that using care and diligence and doing all they can to try and make sure the country is ready is out of line. The percentage doesn't matter; it's the change itself which is huge that needs to be considered.
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Old 05-28-2009, 10:55 PM   #7 (permalink)
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Everything takes time, and I agree the numbers are small, but along with all of those statistical numbers, you do have to take into account that this is a major change in how we do business in America. It's perhaps the biggest change in all of TV history, so I don't think that using care and diligence and doing all they can to try and make sure the country is ready is out of line. The percentage doesn't matter; it's the change itself which is huge that needs to be considered.
I agree completely. But being someone from the Broadcast side of the game, I can tell you delays have been terrible though a lot of the problem was the local broadcasters themselves.

This thing started 13 year ago with the passage of the Comm Act of 1996. Seems like a lifetime ago even at my age.

The FCC had to do more than one delay. Even though the airwaves were regulated to begin setting up digital transmitter by 1999, most stations due to funding and looking at the prospect of dual electric bills and transmitter maintenance waited until the last minute. The FCC had said that all station (I am forgetting specfic dates, so please forgive me and now they are hard to google as they are not current events and gone from many sites).

The station had until sometime around 2005 as the final date to have their digital transmitters one the air. Well so many stations waited (good reasons for budget etc) until the last minute there was not way the limited number of transmitter builders could complete the orders in time, much less the stations get them and installed and running. So the date was move to July 2006 to be on the air or loose their digital channel allocation. That was the threat that got things moving on the station end, loosing their digital license and having to reapply in markets where channels were hard to find due to core channels being chopped to 2 - 51. A lot of people didn't make the July 2006, but enough did and those that had work in progress kept building and most of them were running by early 2007.

Then to appease the TV manufacturers the FCC allowed TV makers to keep selling TV's without ATSC tuners up through Christmas of 2006. I really think part of the silence was to help them move the TV's so they didn't have to retool for as long as possible. Something that would take a lot of digging to find proof.

Then it wasn't until March of 2007 that all TVs had to have a ATSC tuner of be tag on the them explaining they didn't.

Now the average life of a TV is 5 to 7 years these days (they used to last longer I know). So there was no mandate to sell TV's with an ATSC tuner until 2 years before the cut off as defined at that point of Feb 2009 (the first cut off was about 2006).

So allowing non ATSC TVs sold so long mandated many of converter boxes.

Now so you see the TV stations were already given two chances and Feb 2009 was actually at least the second deadline, not the first.

Plus add that in Dec of 2007 Congress called the FCC (partially a partisan thing due to the Dems taking over) to a hearing. They wanted to know how the FCC was doing on informing the public. Well they said they had not. A new woman was appointed that by about mid Jan 2008 got the ball rolling forcing local stations to start PSAs talking about the Feb digital switch over.

This left people thinking that it was a hard switch from analog to digital on Feb 17th. Up until then they could not receive digital. I even answered that question in some forum today, that they could go ahead and switch. Even though it was noticed, the stations, NAB and FCC just kept calling the the digital switch on Feb 17, 2009.

Then people were told to get converter boxes, of which many were put in closets because it wasn't Feb 17th yet and they didn't need them nor know they would already work.

No one talked about the fact that many that had received analog fine on VHF analog now needed UHF antennas. So then the FCC told them after Feb 17th delay the PSAs had to say that people might need a VHF.UHF antenna. Fine

But they still missed one huge thing. There are town now that are all UHF, that after June 12th will have a VHF station. So now we have people thinking they have been ready for a year or more for digital to find they loose a station on June 12th because they don't have outdoor VHF antenna!

Then combine with that there are still quite a few stations that think they can cover the area they did on UHF running 500 to 1000 KW ERP with 20 KW on VHF because at one time the FCC said it would work! Now those in the know understand it takes 40 to 70 KW to cover that area on VHF.

Then I know there are those that don't care. Growing up, after leaving home I was without an TV many times for years at a time. I didn't even miss it. I had stuff to do. If the transition had of happened during those times, I would have not bothered to do anything.

So to conclude, this has been one long screw up. Not to forget we should be using MEPG4 not 2 and there was plenty of time back in the late 1990's to have changed that standard.

It's too late. It's going to happen on June 12th regardless of anything.

If they wanted to delay this with a lot of education it's already apparent they blew it or didn't care. Stations said they could not afford the air time. But after spending hundreds of thousands on new system, the could not run PSAs they were forced to run by the FCC to tell their viewers they could go ahead and use digital? Even the one special we had here wasn't until Jan 2008 on PBS, shown once on Sat afternoon when they knew they would not upset anyone preempting a program.

So anymore delay and a lot of the reason this delay wasn't any more successful is there was no intent to make it so! Lots of good talking about old people without converters, the poor, etc, but no action.

It is time to turn off the analog blow torches and go digital. I could make an argument also to delay again, but it has become time period.

The stations already spent another 4 months of electricity on analog, already rescheduled tower crews at least once. Another delay would put more stations out of business, cause more layoffs at stations and some tower crew companies to go bankrupt.

It is time.........
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Old 05-29-2009, 06:55 AM   #8 (permalink)
 
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That was a great history lesson, and I thank you for it. I'm part of the group that has only been in the group for the last two years, when our stations began to push it on air.

One question just for my personal knowledge. I'm not all that technical. You said: "Then to appease the TV manufacturers the FCC allowed TV makers to keep selling TV's without ATSC tuners up through Christmas of 2006."

ATSC Tuners --- old TV's don't have them so they need converter boxes. Are you saying that any new TV manufactured from 2007 on does *not* need a converter box? Does it do it internally?
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Old 05-29-2009, 11:20 AM   #9 (permalink)
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The stations already spent another 4 months of electricity on analog, already rescheduled tower crews at least once. Another delay would put more stations out of business, cause more layoffs at stations and some tower crew companies to go bankrupt.

It is time.........
Agree. Another dtv delay, and the stations would probably need a bail out.

In case anybody missed this post, here are some of the costs involved for networks having to broadcast analog and digital. http://www.dtvusaforum.com/everythin...2-million.html
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Old 05-29-2009, 11:41 AM   #10 (permalink)
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Isn't there a DTV oversight committee that's been organized? I'll have to look again, but I haven't heard anything about their "progress" over the past few months. Or has it been canceled now that Kevin Martin isn't chairman of the FCC anymore.

Senate Commerce Committee DTV-Oversight Hearing Set for April 8 - 2008-03-06 11:50:00 | Broadcasting & Cable
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