What's your prediction on cable and satellite companies?

Aaron62

Contributor
Staff member
#1
With the TV I watched this weekend and what was available to me online, and with networks broadcasting more content online (ahem http://www.dtvusaforum.com/sports-talk/46018-nbc-stream-super-bowl-online.html), I think we're seeing the dawn of a new way to watch TV. It's only a matter of time before cable and satellite providers are out of business.

I predict that in 5 years, most viewers will be watching TV through online services, and cable TV providers will either consolidate or focus more on being an Internet Service Provider.

Anyone agree? Disagree?
 

Thomas G

Contributor
#2
Oh, I'm sure the big cable co's are dreaming of ways right now to hold onto their share of the market, 5 years might be a little aggressive.
 

Orrymain

, Blogger: Orry's Orations
#3
I disagree. I think all of that could happen but transition takes a very long time. It's almost generational, so I'd put it much longer than 5 years.
 

dave73

DTVUSA Member
#4
With Comcast owning most of NBC (eventually GE will completely sell off NBC), they will make every effort to make sure it takes longer than 5 years to keep people from going with internet TV exclusively. I won't be surprised that NBC will eventually be on cable & satellite only. That could happen in 5 years.
 

dkreichen1968

Moderator
Staff member
#6
I won't be surprised that NBC will eventually be on cable & satellite only. That could happen in 5 years.
Comcast won't do that since it would reduce NBC from number 4 to number 204. The networks are too dependant on the local content provided by the local affiliates for ratings. There was a lot of talk about NBC being beat in the ratings by USA. But, the fact is that USA was running reruns of NCIS. It's bad when the #1 network's reruns beat the #4 networks original programming, but GE pretty much ran NBC into the ground. On the other hand the best rated local news broadcasts in both the Colorado Springs and Denver markets are on NBC stations (KOAA and KUSA). KUSA has twice the audience of it's nearest competitor.

I'll give conventional cable 10 years due to a generational shift. Folks who are currently over the age of 50 will continue to have cable because they always have had it, folks between 35-50 will be a mixed bag, and folks under 35 will be "cord cutters" or "cord nevers." Eventually you will have broadcast and an a la carte system of IPTV where you only pay for the channels you watch.
 

Cutthecable

DTVUSA Member
#7
Yes but there is more!! In WSJ report of cable companies negotiating with content providers like Disney (ESPN owners etc.) to limit them making available their programs online. The Cable companies are not going down without a fight. Expect them to be the conduit to make the same content providers shows available online via the likes of Xfinity etc. Cable companies will start playing hardball "Sure we will carry our show, but only if it is not made available online unless it is through a subscription service aka Xfinity".
 

Orrymain

, Blogger: Orry's Orations
#8
I still think it will take longer because those generations are living longer. I'd go for 20 years before a major shift like that actually occurs. Otherwise, they risk losing out on that older generation entirely.
 

Aaron62

Contributor
Staff member
#9
Yes but there is more!! In WSJ report of cable companies negotiating with content providers like Disney (ESPN owners etc.) to limit them making available their programs online. The Cable companies are not going down without a fight. Expect them to be the conduit to make the same content providers shows available online via the likes of Xfinity etc. Cable companies will start playing hardball "Sure we will carry our show, but only if it is not made available online unless it is through a subscription service aka Xfinity".
Sounds like a game of chess right now for cable and satellite companies.

1. All of them are in denial about cord cutting and Netflix.

2. The big cable companies are angling the market and snapping up content providers or making deals with them as you pointed.

3. Big cable companies are expanding their internet service areas and upgrading speeds, charging customers more, and even limiting bandwidth usage.

4. What else am I missing.

Anyway, I'm still sticking to my 5 year prediction. ;)
 

Orrymain

, Blogger: Orry's Orations
#10
It's just way too early. They can't afford to offend that higher age demographic. You know, that age group used to be the sign of death, but with people living longer and spending more money now, they can't be tossed aside that easily.
 

n2rj

Moderator
Staff member
#11
I predict that in 5 years, most viewers will be watching TV through online services, and cable TV providers will either consolidate or focus more on being an Internet Service Provider.

Anyone agree? Disagree?
I don't think traditional cable is going anywhere.

Internet TV will supplement, but not completely replace it.
 

n2rj

Moderator
Staff member
#12
It's just way too early. They can't afford to offend that higher age demographic. You know, that age group used to be the sign of death, but with people living longer and spending more money now, they can't be tossed aside that easily.
Cable's big advantage is that for the most part it is a plug and play service.

Internet TV is not, especially now where you have to sign up for different services and choose different apps to watch different channels. Work is being done to make this process simpler though, but I think it will be a supplement.

Cable has one bill and one source for content, that is a HUGE advantage.
 

Orrymain

, Blogger: Orry's Orations
#13
Obviously, I agree with that. I think that many people think the whole world is on the computer, but they are not. There are still a lot of folks resisting it and not wanting to deal with it. Kids today and young adults who have grown up with the revolution only know it and have a hard time realizing that older generations aren't necessarily the fans they are or even really grasp the concept.
 

n2rj

Moderator
Staff member
#14
I do notice a lot of the "younger" generation is cord cutting though. My brother doesn't have cable TV. Doesn't need nor want it. He likes live sports and uses ESPN3 for that.

The internet streaming isn't always going to be free I think. What is going to happen is that streaming partners are going to cut deals with ISPs and cable providers. Unfortunately for many (but not all) I think the cable TV subscription is going to remain a requirement. Yeah, so it's not "disruptive" but it is profitable, and a business is in it to make profit.

More streaming is going to move off of the computer and onto devices like game consoles and roku boxes. Microsoft is pouring resources into this. They've cut deals with Verizon, AT&T and other cable and streaming partners. Everybody is making roku apps. Boxee has their box and they're going to add the live TV dongle. Google TV is pushing too. Smaller players are also along for the ride, like Ceton Corp who recently announced their "Q" DVR at CES which has universal search including internet content. TiVo has a similar feature in the new Premiere DVRs.

But all of this I don't think is going to replace cable. It's going to be more choices for consumers.
 

dkreichen1968

Moderator
Staff member
#16
Satellite TV has a longer life because of it's ability to deliver wirelessly into areas without good OTA coverage, but there will come a time when it will no longer be economical for most cable companies to offer video service. At that point cable networks will go to streaming, become multicast channels, or die.
 

n2rj

Moderator
Staff member
#17
Satellite TV has a longer life because of it's ability to deliver wirelessly into areas without good OTA coverage, but there will come a time when it will no longer be economical for most cable companies to offer video service. At that point cable networks will go to streaming, become multicast channels, or die.
Maybe, but it won't be before they transition the revenue model.

In other words, don't expect your cable bill to be cut in half.
 

dkreichen1968

Moderator
Staff member
#19
Maybe, but it won't be before they transition the revenue model.

In other words, don't expect your cable bill to be cut in half.
They are going to have to compete against the telecos for internet. Sure, if they didn't have to compete in the internet market they could just raise internet prices to make up for video, but anywhere there is a cable company there is a telco that is starving for customers, and it only takes one upgrade for them to offer as good or better speeds at a better price (since they aren't carrying the video carcass around). There is one service that people want that both telcos and cable companies have (internet) and at some point they will stop trying to "bundle" it with the services that people just don't need or want. The thing that has driven cable companies profits and growth has been their lack of competition. It's no longer true.

By the way, Dish must be paying people to have their video service since they keep telling me that I can get the channel I'm watching and many more for less. For me to get that channel for less, the provider would have to be paying me. And, I get many more that run the same ad. ;)
 

Fringe Reception

Super Moderator, Chief Content Editor
Staff member
#20
By the way, Dish must be paying people to have their video service since they keep telling me that I can get the channel I'm watching and many more for less. For me to get that channel for less, the provider would have to be paying me. And, I get many more that run the same ad. ;)
Yeah, since I receive FREE TV, where's my check from DISH?

It's snowing in Seattle and I have close to 6" on my deck, so far. I just drove to the store and lost count of all the satellite dishes that are plastered with the lovely white stuff. I wonder how many of those people still have TV reception? Our antenna setup is working perfectly, even KVOS 75 miles to my north is rock-solid.

Jim
 

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