Question: Will Internet mean the end of paid programming as we know it?

matie1138

DTVUSA Jr. Member
#1
I think that with the amount of illegal downloads of movies and tv shows going on, there will be a point in which studios and filmmakers will agree to distribute their work freely on the net because it will be pointless by then to sell it since no one will buy it. Profits will be determined by advertising share fees and the amount of clics and popularity that the movie or TV show has.

Do you think this is some sort of uthopy or I may be into something here?
 

Piggie

Super Moderator
#2
They predicted that about MP3 songs, but in fact, they are 99 cents a piece, many buy them. They need to make the price very reasonable to download and own a movie. I think that will be the answer. Actually NetFlix has that in a sense already. Of all the movies I have purchased I have watched 1% of them more than a few times and only a couple percent twice. So just being able to spend $9 a month and get any movie (just about) on Net Flilx is the model that works now.
 

bicker

DTVUSA Member
#3
I suspect the most significant impact of all this will be a drastic reduction in the production values of most television productions. There will surely still be the occasional film like Avatar, but as time goes on, the budget for video production will start looking more and more like the budget for music production, since the transgressive nature of many people will drive the motivation to invest more in television production out of the system.
 

BCF68

DTVUSA Member
#4
I think that with the amount of illegal downloads of movies and tv shows going on, there will be a point in which studios and filmmakers will agree to distribute their work freely on the net because it will be pointless by then to sell it since no one will buy it. Profits will be determined by advertising share fees and the amount of clics and popularity that the movie or TV show has.

Do you think this is some sort of uthopy or I may be into something here?
If there's no money to be made why make a movie or TV show. This is what the freeloaders don't get. No one is going ot invest MILLIONS in a movie or TV show and not expect to see a chance at a profit. No one is gong to work for free so the freeloaders can get free entertainment. I'm not what it will take for freelaoders to see this. of course I suspect most freeloaders live at home with mom and/or are on welfare. So they are used to the idea of being given something for nothing.
 

Piggie

Super Moderator
#5
I suspect the most significant impact of all this will be a drastic reduction in the production values of most television productions. There will surely still be the occasional film like Avatar, but as time goes on, the budget for video production will start looking more and more like the budget for music production, since the transgressive nature of many people will drive the motivation to invest more in television production out of the system.
I suspect that is probably true, since Net Flix has set a standard for how much a movie is worth. Most people I know have turned off the movie channels on satellite and cable and just bought a Net Flix box. But I have said way back and it seems to be true, that the big screen films that never look as good at home will be the ones you mention. Seems we went through this when the VCR came out. At that point it seemed cheap compared to movie tickets and people shared them. Actually most of the time VCR movies were never returned and kept being passed around. And that technology just handing someone a tape was easy compared to downloading off the internet and probably way more common. Actually I think most people did that. After all you felt like you owned the movie. Which alone brings up other questions I don't have the energy to debate or care about, do you "own" the movie when you buy a tape, dvd, or download it legally for cash?
 

Orrymain

, Blogger: Orry's Orations
#6
Keep in mind that with today's technology, these movies and shows look darn good downloaded. To be honest, right now the stuff on the computer is better than my TV. And I'm a little more sympathetic with the so called freeloaders because it's too outrageously priced to take a family to the movies these days.
 

bicker

DTVUSA Member
#7
Which alone brings up other questions I don't have the energy to debate or care about, do you "own" the movie when you buy a tape, dvd, or download it legally for cash?
When you purchase a pre-recorded videocasette, DVD or Blu-ray Disc, you are purchasing (only) the license to view its contents. You do not own the movie or any part of the movie. The license is transferable, with the physical medium serving as currency of the license. Also, for programming that is broadcast over-the-air, viewers have the right to time-shift, and in most cases, place-shift, for later viewing, but cannot make any other use of recorded broadcasts without the expressed written consent of the broadcaster and content owner. For programming that is broadcast by cable, viewers have more limited rights in terms of time-shifting and place-shifting, by default, and those rights can be further limited by the content owner or service provider, if desired by them. Breaching or facilitating of the breaching of any of the protection measures intended to safeguard the rights of content owners and service providers, as outlined above, is a felony.
 

bicker

DTVUSA Member
#8
Keep in mind that with today's technology, these movies and shows look darn good downloaded. To be honest, right now the stuff on the computer is better than my TV.
Don't say that on any of the forums devoted to HD, such as avsforum.com's HD Programming forum -- they'll rip you in half. :) The idea that Netflix's 3 Mbps is comparable to the 18 Mbps you often get from OTA is an anathema - sacrilege - to many folks there.

And I'm a little more sympathetic with the so called freeloaders because it's too outrageously priced to take a family to the movies these days.
That's an indefensible perspective. It can be as readily used to justify folks living in poverty walking into any grocery store and taking whatever they want without paying. It's theft, plain and simple. We can be sympathetic and can have compassion without condoning transgression. Our responsible action as socially-conscious people is to give of our own resources to ease the suffering of others, not to expect others to give of their resources to assuage our sensibilities.
 

Piggie

Super Moderator
#9
When you purchase a pre-recorded videocasette, DVD or Blu-ray Disc, you are purchasing (only) the license to view its contents. You do not own the movie or any part of the movie. The license is transferable, with the physical medium serving as currency of the license. Also, for programming that is broadcast over-the-air, viewers have the right to time-shift, and in most cases, place-shift, for later viewing, but cannot make any other use of recorded broadcasts without the expressed written consent of the broadcaster and content owner. For programming that is broadcast by cable, viewers have more limited rights in terms of time-shifting and place-shifting, by default, and those rights can be further limited by the content owner or service provider, if desired by them. Breaching or facilitating of the breaching of any of the protection measures intended to safeguard the rights of content owners and service providers, as outlined above, is a felony.
Well that is what I thought and feel is correct (though how you feel won't hold up in court!). What bothers me is when there is a push, more so by software that the license is not transferable. But this is a very old topic and in your field you probably deal with that debate at least at the water cooler.
 

Piggie

Super Moderator
#10
The idea that Netflix's 3 Mbps is comparable to the 18 Mbps you often get from OTA is an anathema - sacrilege - to many folks there.
That was something I should have added in me saying one of the new standards of the worth of a movie is set by Net Flix $9 a month. It also sets the content over quality with it's limited bandwidth.

So not only does it reduce the revenue flow, it also sets a lower resolution standard to be ok, at least for the price and convenience of programming on demand.
 
#11
I am not to sure about all regions but I can tell you in this region the movie theaters are doing very well. Maybe it is from the winter snows or a general lack of things to do I dunno, but our Imax set up this date night package for prime time on friday nights and the theaters are packed if not sold out. Went to see the new freddy Krueger flick and it was cheaper then going to the earlier twighlight shows, Same thing two weekends ago when we went to see clash of the titans, ditto alice in wonderland. The place was packed in a way I had not seen since Batman. And you know it does not stop people from buying the DVD, my mother saw avatar and still bought the DVD. 3D movies seem to do equally as well and it is great to see kid movies for a low price on weekend mornings. Now if only they got back to the saturday double features that would be great.
 

BCF68

DTVUSA Member
#12
And I'm a little more sympathetic with the so called freeloaders because it's too outrageously priced to take a family to the movies these days.
If they feel the prices are too high they have a right to NOT go to the movie thus denying the studios that revenue and that's all. That doesn't give them a right to illegally download it over the internet or get a illegally copy of it on DVD.

If you stop going to movies then movies don't make money and maybe prices get lowered. If you download it illegally to the studios it shows the movie is popular and thus they'l keep prices high and they'll think the problem is piracy not price.
 

BCF68

DTVUSA Member
#13
Don't say that on any of the forums devoted to HD, such as avsforum.com's HD Programming forum -- they'll rip you in half. :) The idea that Netflix's 3 Mbps is comparable to the 18 Mbps you often get from OTA is an anathema - sacrilege - to many folks there.
While I agree mostly you also have to remember that OTA is mpeg-2 and most OTA broadcasts are nowhere near 18 Mbps. The local( Nashville ) ABC, NBC and CBS stations broadcast at about 14 Mbps. With CBS trying to do 1080i at 14.3 Mbps. What a joke. The Nashville PBS station broadcasts it's HD channel at 11.65 Mbps. And with the Netflix HD codec 3 Mbps is closer to 6 Mbps OTA.
 
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